Two in three shoppers say an accurate delivery date is essential and two in five say it makes them more likely to buy. So why are the vast majority of retailers not giving it to them? 

The gap between what you promise and what you deliver - the ‘promise gap’ - is one of the standout findings from our State of Shipping Report. For logistics leaders, it’s free conversion sitting on the table. 

Here’s what it looks like in practice.

You’ve ordered new loafers for this weekend’s wedding, and planned your work from home schedule around their estimated arrival on Friday.

But you arrive home on Tuesday to a card that says that the loafers have been and gone. They were three days early. And now they’re on their way to the local post office for you to collect at your convenience. But ‘your convenience’ was the Friday estimate.

If they arrived when the brand said they would, you’d be all set for the big day. Instead, you’ll be dashing to the post office on your lunch break - along with everyone else in your entire suburb. 

That’s not a hypothetical scenario. For millions of consumers, it's a frustrating reality. In this week’s Delivered, we shine a light on this, and some of the key findings logistics leaders can’t afford to ignore in 2026. 

TL;DR

• Certainty rivals speed. Two in three shoppers say that seeing an accurate delivery date before purchase is essential, two in five say it increases their likelihood of purchasing, and over half would rather have a reliable delivery over a fast one.
• Cost-effective and fast delivery - top priorities for shoppers - look like contradictory demands. They're not; shoppers want the right option for the right situation.
• AI is the single biggest investment priority for retailers in 2026, yet two in three rarely or never use the delivery data they already collect.

1. Is certainty or speed the fastest way to the top of the podium?

The industry has spent a decade chasing faster. 

That chase hasn’t been in vain; millions of consumers have been trained, by Amazon, to expect speed. But to chase speed and speed alone is blinkered:

• Two in three consumers (68%) say seeing an accurate delivery date before purchase is essential or very important
• More than half (52%) say a reliable date matters even when delivery isn't fast
• Two in five (38%) say an accurate date makes them more likely to buy

Shoppers aren't asking you to be quicker, they're asking you to be right.

“Consumers seem to value certainty almost as much as speed, and in some cases more,” says Dean Salakas, founder of the Retail Community network and former CEO of The Party People, one of Australia's earliest ecommerce adopters.

“The report shows 68% of consumers say an accurate delivery date is essential or very important, and more than half would accept slower delivery if the date was reliable and transparent. The industry has spent years obsessing over ‘faster' when we should be obsessing over ‘confidence'."

That matters. Delivering confidence requires less capital than delivering speed. 

Today, retailers advertise 5.2 days at checkout. The average delivery only takes 2.2 days. Under-promising then over-delivering sounds good at a glance, but impacts acquisition and retention.

The shopper who saw ‘five days’ and bought elsewhere never found out you'd have had it there on Tuesday. And the shopper who missed their loafer delivery because your estimate wasn’t accurate, might not return. 

“Amazon has shaped delivery expectations for more than half of Australian consumers, and it’s growing,” says Sarah Mullen, Chief Operations Officer at Adore Beauty.

2. Are cost-effective and fast a contradiction?

The two things shoppers want most from delivery are cost-effective options (40%) and faster options (34%). 

At a glance, this sounds contradictory. In logistics, cheaper and faster don't usually share a sentence. But only at a glance. The reality is not only more nuanced; it presents opportunities.

“On the face of it they sound contradictory,” Dean says. “But consumers are really saying, ‘Give me the right delivery experience for the right situation’. Sometimes they want speed, sometimes they want affordability, and more and more they want choice and transparency. 

“The retailers doing this well are moving away from a one-size-fits-all model and are offering flexible delivery options. For example, low-cost or free delivery for customers willing to wait. Premium express options for urgency.”

The key to offering optionality is establishing the right operational and data foundations first.

Retailers that can improve inventory visibility, optimise fulfilment locations, reduce split shipments, and use smarter routing, have improved both costs, speed, and performance at the same time.

This is where carrier diversity comes in. A single carrier can't be the cheapest and the fastest option for every shopper in every postcode. 

A rules engine lets you set the conditions once - by weight, dimensions, location, store, service type - and every order routes itself to the right carrier automatically.

Cheapest for the shopper happy to wait, fastest for their neighbour who needs it now, and auto-upgrades when express costs no more. 

It works. Petbarn applies this across 240 stores. Customers who choose on-demand delivery spend 3.5x more and shopping 35% more frequently.

Which brings us the real lesson of this year's report: none of it works without data you can trust. (Spoiler: not enough of you are using it).

3. AI is the top investment, but are your foundations in place?

When it comes to AI, retailers are putting their money where their mouth is. AI is now the single biggest investment priority for 35% of retailers, up from 15% in 2025. 

But many are running before they’ve tied their shoe laces. That’s because two in three retailers rarely or never use their existing delivery data to optimise operations.

Recent weeks have given rise to so-called “tokenmaxxing” whereby businesses burn through their AI budgets with little ROI to show. Sam Altman, OpenAI CEO, said in May that he wasn’t surprised that companies aren’t yet seeing revenue gains from AI investments. 

In logistics, the retailers who are investing in AI before the data layer that supports it will struggle to translate their spend into gains. 

“The retailers most likely to see a return are asking honest questions,” Dean adds. “Do we trust our data? Are we measuring the right things? Are teams actually using the insights already available to them? 

“In many cases, the biggest opportunity isn't building or buying another AI tool. It's better utilisation of existing systems and data. AI should sit on top of strong foundations, not replace the need for them."

This ladders directly back to the promise gap. 

The data that closes the gap between what you advertise and what you deliver - think proof of delivery, exception notifications, estimated delivery dates - is already flowing between you and your carriers. 

The encouraging side of the equation is that we know what shoppers want, carriers are delivering at record speed and reliability, and data is flowing. The uncomfortable side is that adoption is lagging.

“The market-leaders are responding with purpose,” Rob adds. “But many retailers may use tightening economic cycles as an excuse against investment. Failure to invest in their last mile infrastructure could very well be the Kodak moment for many retailers.”

Where to start on Monday morning

The temptation is to fix everything at once. Resist that urge. Often, logistics adoption lags not because retailers don’t know what to do, but because they’re fighting fires on multiple fronts.

So start with the constraint that influences the others: closing the promise gap.

• Pull your advertised estimates and compare them against your actual delivery times from the last quarter. The size of that gap tells you what to do next.
• If the gap is large and your data is, you have a communication problem. Tighten your checkout estimate to reflect your actual delivery speeds.
• If you couldn’t easily make that comparison or you didn’t trust the data, you have a data problem. Fixing that must come before any AI investment or new delivery tier. Find out what delivery data you already collect, whether you trust it, and how it’s being used. Only once you have that data, should you sign that new AI contract or build out new delivery options or a rules engine.

“The retailers making ground aren’t chasing the shiniest solution,” Sarah adds.

“They’re doing the unglamorous work of closing promise gaps, cleaning data, designing better returns processes, and building fulfilment capability that works in the peaks. It’s not complex. It’s simple and fundamental.”

Download the full State of Shipping Report 2026 to see the trends we didn’t unpack here.

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