Admit it - you’ve bought a gift a little too close to Christmas, and been left high and dry because it didn’t arrive in time. Or just me?

It’s the gift that doesn’t arrive on time that spoils Christmas, not a lump of coal, a rained-out BBQ, or a tasteless dad joke. 

If you’ve felt that pain as a consumer, you don’t want to be on the other end of it as a retailer; facing the wrath of hundreds of customers unhappy because their delivery didn’t come in time.

Carriers share their cut-offs for this exact reason - so that retailers know when they need to book and dispatch orders by, to guarantee a ‘by-Christmas’ delivery. 

But that cut-off is different to the deadline your customers need to know about. In this week’s edition of Delivered, we spoke to Nicola Kazan, Shipping Success Manager at Shippit, about how important the ‘order by’ banner on your website is, and how to set it.

TL;DR

• A carrier’s cut-off is a dispatch date. Your ‘order by’ date is that date, minus your own fulfilment time at peak.
• Transit times aren’t one-size-fits-all; if you treat them like that, it can cost you conversions and customers.
• The week after the standard cut-off (16 December) is a lucrative selling window, provided you set the right dates and expectations, and your carrier handover is smooth.

A carrier cut-off is a dispatch date, not an ‘order by’ date

Carrier cut-offs answer a key question: when does a parcel need to be with a carrier to arrive by Christmas? For standard delivery this year, that’s Wednesday 16 December. For express, it’s Monday 21 December. And for on demand services, it’s 9am on Wednesday 23 December. 

What none of those dates tell us, though, is when a customer needs to place an order. They don’t account for the gap between the ‘buy’ button and the carrier turning up at your warehouse. That fulfilment gap - whether it’s a few hours or three days - needs to be factored in.  

“Carrier cut-offs cover the delivery leg of the journey, but they don’t account for fulfilment, and our research shows retailers need three days on average for that,” says Nicola. 

So work backwards. Take your carriers’ dates, subtract your fulfilment and dispatch time - at peak levels, not your annual average - and you have an ‘order by’ date you can share with your customers.

“Ideally, retailers start preparing for peak early,” Nicola says. “They use previous years’ data and their year-to-date trends to understand what their operation can handle at peak, set realistic cut-offs for their customers, and add a buffer on top. 

“They also introduce multiple carriers and services, both for contingency and to give shoppers choice, and shift volume away from carriers that underperform in certain zones and states.

“They keep reviewing their operation and their carriers’ constraints, and adjust where they need to, so the promise they make at checkout is kept. They win customer loyalty, cut their customer service queries, and see a strong uptake of express and on demand delivery that they keep those options after peak.”

Don’t let your slowest lane set every cut-off

Transit times aren’t national. According to Shippit’s aggregate metro transit times, shipping a parcel within Sydney takes one day on a standard service, Melbourne to Adelaide takes two, and any east coast city to Perth takes five. 

The 16 December standard cut-off is set against the slowest of those lanes. If you apply it as a blanket approach, you cost yourself sales.

A shopper ordering standard delivery from across town has, on average, four more business days of transit headroom than the December cut-off suggests. If the shopper thinks they’re too late, they turn to a competitor. 

“That headroom isn’t a reason to cut it fine, though,” Nicola adds. “For metro orders, I’d still build in a buffer of one to two days.”

Then there are the millions of interstate shoppers, and the hundreds of millions of dollars they contribute to Australian ecommerce. An interstate delivery covers more distance, has more hand-offs, less frequent services, and more dispersed sorting facilities - all of which increase delivery times.

A significant portion (40-45%) of Baby Bunting’s online orders came from regional and remote areas. So the brand primed 100% of its store network for online fulfilment, allowing it to introduce same- and next-day delivery - improving delivery speeds, network-wide. 

Having a cut-off for every postcode is unrealistic. Two or three zones (metro, interstate, and regional) beat one date that’s wrong for most shoppers. 

And ship-from-store unlocks inventory closer to more shoppers, which shortens lanes, and opens up longer buying windows for more of them.

Your final days can still be lucrative

Nine days between the standard cut-off and the big day is a long time. There’s still a lot of festive cheer to spread - for the retailers who can offer priority delivery up to 9am on 22 December, and on demand to 9am on 23 December.

Shoppers pay for speed. Almost two in three Aussies (62%) are willing to pay extra for faster delivery. What’s more, faster delivery options (34%) and click and collect (23%) rank second and third among the factors shoppers prioritise at checkout. 

Expect high interest rates, inflation, and unemployment to affect consumer behaviour this peak season. Against that backdrop, the longer your window, the better. 

The smartest retailers don’t switch their banner off on 16 December. They don’t need to. Instead, they change it. An ‘order by 16 December’ banner becomes ‘still time with priority and on demand’. Then, for the dangerously late shoppers, ‘collect in store’.

“The biggest missed opportunity is not offering express and on demand options at all, or hiding them away on your checkout and shipping pages,” Nicola adds. 

“The retailers who get it right promote express, same day, and on demand delivery on their homepage and product pages, push click and collect, remind shoppers with abandoned carts of the cut-off for each service, and promote gift cards in the last 48 hours. And they keep reviewing their fulfilment capacity, adjusting their cut-off promise to match.”

Don’t fall at the final hurdle

Making the sale is the hard part. But a sale isn’t a delivery until it’s in a carrier’s hands, and at peak the handover is where good orders end up stuck.

“Share your volume forecasts with your carriers before peak,” Nicola says. “Make sure they’re prepared for the volume you expect, that your collection schedule and set-up can support it, and that you know about any capacity constraints coming into peak, such as pickup caps.”

1. Pack and label it right: Use sturdy, standardised packaging that supports what’s inside, and attach the correct consignment label, removing or covering any old barcodes. Shipping dangerous goods? Add the correct labelling and have the declaration ready to hand to the driver. If your packaging isn’t standardised, check the declared weight and dimensions are correct in your shipping platform.
2. Manifest before collection: “No manifest, no pickup,” says Nicola. “If freight is handed over without data, it doesn’t travel. It’s held at the depot until the data comes through.” Her fix is a regular manifesting window at every location, so nothing gets left off, whether you’re on scheduled or ad hoc collections.
3. Sort freight by carrier: “A dedicated backroom area works, as long as it’s kept clear and is easy for staff and drivers to access,” Nicola says. “Group freight by carrier, not by order, using the logo or name on the consignment label. And keep someone on hand in the afternoon who can match freight to the carrier quickly.”
4. Be ready for the driver: “Carriers usually collect in the afternoon,” Nicola explains. “Stores with regular volume are normally given a scheduled two-hour window. Stores with ad hoc volume can expect collection within one to three days. Drivers don’t wait. Five minutes, typically. Your freight needs to be staged and ready before they arrive, not after.”

Get those four steps right and carrier cut-offs become dates you can work back from. The confidence they provide is what lets you push your ‘order by’ date later, give more shoppers time to order, and keep selling deep into December. 

That means the gift arrives on time, and then it’s over to dad to spoil the big day with the ill-advised joke. 

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